Market insights

Counterpoint Outlook 2025: New horizons

As we turn the page on 2024, one thing is clear: the world we invest in continues to evolve. The past year defied expectations, surprising us with economic resilience even as markets braced for turbulence. So, what did we learn, and how can we better prepare for what 2025 might bring?

Markets remain well-behaved, with the US outperforming

We’re not yet into the festive season but markets were relatively quiet last week and could be again this week, as the economic calendar is relatively light. However, there were some geopolitical jitters. Tensions flared up between Russia and Ukraine, causing a reaction in the commodity market.

Trump 2.0 – go big, and go home

Donald Trump, the 47th president-elect of the USA, has been given a strong mandate. He won both the electoral college and popular vote, while his Republican party secured a majority in both chambers of Congress.

Preparing for the unpredictable

November is the time of the year when, together with the Investment Committee, I start preparing for our year-ahead market outlook. But, to tell you the truth, we do this continuously: as new research comes in and events unfold, we keep refining our market outlook, day in and day out.

Stimulus and Sustainability in China: A Growing Tension

As China’s latest economic stimulus package takes shape, one critical question arises: What does this mean for its net-zero ambitions? China’s latest package appears heavily focused on traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure, raising concerns about whether this emphasis might delay or complicate China’s climate commitments.

The rise of generational wealth: Unlocking new possibilities

How do Europeans feel about their wealth? We asked 595 high net worth individuals to delve into the psychology of wealth in 2024. Our report reveals fascinating differences between generations and polarised opinions on key questions.

The US election aftermath

Although not yet fully certified, Trump has secured a clearer victory than initial polls indicated. The election resulted in a ‘Red sweep’, with a Republican majority in both chambers of Congress.

US elections: a pivotal moment

While the US presidential election outcome isn’t confirmed yet, Donald Trump is in the lead at the time of writing. With three swing states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia – already called for Trump by the US media, he’s also slightly in the lead in the remaining four key states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona.

US elections in focus

It’s still impossible to predict who’s going to be the 47th US President as Americans head to the polls on November 5th. However, since October, the odds of a Donald Trump win and Republicans winning both chambers of Congress (the Senate and House of Representatives) have risen, with Kamal Harris narrowing the gap (and coming fractionally ahead in some surveys of voter intentions) over the weekend.

Political, fiscal and economic cross-currents

Last week was quiet, with no significant economic data releases, so markets continued to take cues from the US election polls. The US dollar rose and bonds declined. Surprisingly, stocks fell. It’s hard to attribute these dynamics to a single event. Trump had earlier taken a slight advantage in the polls in all swing states, though still within the margin of error, but his advance faded last week.

2024: The Mother of All Election Years

In 2024, 4 billion people across 74 countries are casting their votes. Among these, the US Presidential, Senate, and Congress elections on November 5 are set to be the most market-moving.

Rate cuts and the ‘Trump trade’

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) as inflation fell below the 2% target in September and growth remains sluggish. While not pre-committing to more cuts, ECB President Lagarde’s communication hinted that more could be on the way, given growth worries.