Market insights

Stimulus and Sustainability in China: A Growing Tension

As China’s latest economic stimulus package takes shape, one critical question arises: What does this mean for its net-zero ambitions? China’s latest package appears heavily focused on traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure, raising concerns about whether this emphasis might delay or complicate China’s climate commitments.

The rise of generational wealth: Unlocking new possibilities

How do Europeans feel about their wealth? We asked 595 high net worth individuals to delve into the psychology of wealth in 2024. Our report reveals fascinating differences between generations and polarised opinions on key questions.

The US election aftermath

Although not yet fully certified, Trump has secured a clearer victory than initial polls indicated. The election resulted in a ‘Red sweep’, with a Republican majority in both chambers of Congress.

US elections: a pivotal moment

While the US presidential election outcome isn’t confirmed yet, Donald Trump is in the lead at the time of writing. With three swing states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia – already called for Trump by the US media, he’s also slightly in the lead in the remaining four key states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona.

US elections in focus

It’s still impossible to predict who’s going to be the 47th US President as Americans head to the polls on November 5th. However, since October, the odds of a Donald Trump win and Republicans winning both chambers of Congress (the Senate and House of Representatives) have risen, with Kamal Harris narrowing the gap (and coming fractionally ahead in some surveys of voter intentions) over the weekend.

Political, fiscal and economic cross-currents

Last week was quiet, with no significant economic data releases, so markets continued to take cues from the US election polls. The US dollar rose and bonds declined. Surprisingly, stocks fell. It’s hard to attribute these dynamics to a single event. Trump had earlier taken a slight advantage in the polls in all swing states, though still within the margin of error, but his advance faded last week.

2024: The Mother of All Election Years

In 2024, 4 billion people across 74 countries are casting their votes. Among these, the US Presidential, Senate, and Congress elections on November 5 are set to be the most market-moving.

Rate cuts and the ‘Trump trade’

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) as inflation fell below the 2% target in September and growth remains sluggish. While not pre-committing to more cuts, ECB President Lagarde’s communication hinted that more could be on the way, given growth worries.

Giving credit where it’s due

The past few weeks have been quite volatile. First, tensions in the Middle East continued to grab the headlines, pushing oil prices higher. Second, US job growth, services activity and inflation came in higher than expected, leading to markets expecting smaller, more gradual US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

How we’re positioning for volatility bouts

The escalation in the Middle East took a new turn yesterday as Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for the start of ground operations in Lebanon. At the time of writing, it’s too early to tell whether the conflict could broaden to the wider region and/or involve the US – where things are further complicated by the presidential election in November.

The Middle East and the markets (the sequel)

The escalation in the Middle East took a new turn yesterday as Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for the start of ground operations in Lebanon. At the time of writing, it’s too early to tell whether the conflict could broaden to the wider region and/or involve the US – where things are further complicated by the presidential election in November.

Policymakers chase the clouds away

Last week, China unveiled a surprise package of stimulus measures to boost its economy and stock market. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut interest rates, lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratios and relaxed mortgage policies.