Market insights

On the road to trade deals

28 JULY 2025

Last week, the US announced new trade deals with the Philippines, Japan, and the EU (following previous deals with the UK, Indonesia, and Vietnam, and a framework agreement with China).

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Are tariffs to blame for US inflation heating up?

21 JULY 2025

Last week, US inflation came in higher than expected, with tariff-related items showing a pick-up in prices. The headline rate rose 0.3% in June compared to May, bringing the annual rate to 2.7% from 2.4%.

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Hedging US fiscal and tariff risks

14 JULY 2025

A widening budget deficit and rising debt levels in the US pose a risk to US Treasuries. Therefore, we’ve decided to further reduce our US Treasury exposure and reallocate part of the proceeds to Japanese government bonds and part to US equities.

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To deal, or not to deal

7 JULY 2025

Last week, we hosted a special webcast on geopolitics with Daniele Antonucci, our Chief Investment Officer, and Anna Rosenberg, Head of Geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute. During the webcast, we received many questions from the audience, but didn’t have time to address them all. We’ve answered them below.

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Diversification trends are playing out

30 JUNE 2025

Signs of a de-escalation in the Middle East helped calm markets last week, with oil prices falling and market sentiment improving, which supported equities, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record.

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The Middle East, the US and the market

23 JUNE 2025

The Middle East is still the focus of global markets as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues. The key piece of news is that, over the weekend, the US intervened as well, supporting Israel. Against this volatile geopolitical backdrop, equity markets continued to decline while oil prices rose in anticipation of disruptions in the oil market.

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The Middle East and the market (2025 edition)

16 JUNE 2025

In the last bout of escalation, Israel struck Iran last week, targeting its nuclear programme and military facilities, which has raised tensions in the Middle East as Iran is retaliating. Oil prices jumped in the biggest intraday move in the last ten years, now settling above USD70 per barrel, after prices traded below this level for almost a year. Gold prices rose, too, while equities fell moderately.

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Tariffs continue to take centre stage

2 JUNE 2025

Last week, tariff-related developments continued to dominate financial markets. After the market relief in response to President Trump’s postponement of EU tariffs, investors were surprised on Wednesday by a ruling from the US Court of International Trade (USCIT). The USCIT stated that President Trump has overstepped his authority by using emergency economic powers to raise tariffs.

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Markets focused on the US tax bill, and tariffs again

26 MAY 2025

Last Friday, tariffs came back to the forefront with Trump saying that a 25% tariff must be paid by Apple if phones sold in the US are not made in the US, and “recommending a straight 50 % tariff on the European Union” from 1 June, before swiftly extending trade negotiations until 9 July after a conversation on Sunday with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.                          

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Trade talks boost markets

19 MAY 2025

There’s been a welcome swing in market sentiment since the agreement between the US and China to reduce tariffs for the next 90 days. Compared to the sky-high numbers announced in April, this agreement marks a notable de-escalation in tensions. That said, it’s only a 90-day reduction (with uncertainty about what comes next), which still leaves tariffs at historically high levels not seen since the 1940s.

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Counterpoint May 2025: Diversification opportunities amidst uncertainty

12 MAY 2025

During our recent rebalancing, we opted for a ‘roughly neutral’ equity stance in lower-risk profiles and a slight overweight in riskier ones instead of fully reinstating our previous overweight. This helped us benefit from the equity recovery in late April and early May.

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Markets refocus on possible trade deals

5 MAY 2025

April was a rollercoaster month in financial markets, starting with the announcement of the US trade tariffs on 2 April which led to an equity sell-off. The market moves we witnessed were truly historic in their speed, compounded by the subsequent retaliation from China.

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Tariffs and markets, your questions answered

28 APRIL 2025

On April 15, we hosted a special 30-minute webcast focusing on the impact of US tariffs on the global economy and markets. Our speakers were Daniele Antonucci, Chief Investment Officer at Quintet, and Bruno Rovelli, Chair of EMEA Allocation Council Investment Solutions at BlackRock. We received many questions during the webinar.

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Our latest thoughts on tariffs and volatility

14 APRIL 2025

Over the past week, financial markets experienced significant volatility primarily due to abrupt shifts in US trade policy. Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs, the 10% overall tariff is still in place and the ‘trade war’ with China has escalated.

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Our 2025 mid-year outlook

Emerging trends

The global order is becoming more fragmented and regional, a key shift from US-centric geopolitics to a more multi-polar world. Trade uncertainty remains high and is causing market volatility, but there are also signs of pragmatism, which provides some relief to investors. Our base case remains one where economic growth and inflation slow. But, unless a full-blown ‘trade war’ materialises, the global economy should avoid a recession and a significant spike in prices.

Emerging trends
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